Research on the development of highspeed railway impact on the local economy

Zhang, Enshou ORCID: 0000-0002-7028-856X (2025). Research on the development of highspeed railway impact on the local economy. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

High-speed railway(HSR) as a competitive intercity transport solution in areas of high population density have been constructed rapidly in the last decade. Due to the expensive construction and maintenance costs, many researchers have discussed the high speed railway benefit and impact on local economic developments from different aspects by different methodologies. To assess and evaluate the effectiveness of the newly constructed highspeed railway, it is necessary to designate a transport-economy analysis framework. Among most of the research, accessibility measurements have been frequently mentioned and tested with various definitions, indicators, and processing methods for assessing traffic system utility. Traditional accessibility measurement methods are diverse, but due to different scholars having their own distinct definitions, calculation methods, and application processes for accessibility, the resulting indices are difficult to compare and often lack practical significance. This presents challenges for city planners and transportation system designers when adopting specific indicators. Additionally, in the analysis of economic and trade issues, there is a lack of a unified approach for linking accessibility with specific economic statistical variables and applying them in real-world contexts. This limits the broader application of accessibility in various fields.
To improve the accessibility measurement and application, an analysis framework with an improved method of accessibility measurement based on travellers’ profitability is introduced in this research. Three levels of accessibility indicators, Daily Commuting Accessibility (DACC), Daily Work Commuting Accessibility (DWACC), and Weekly Return Accessibility (WACC) were designed based on different commuting frequencies and purposes. The average traveller’s income and local living cost were integrated to simulate the real commute scenario and assess the status of the transport system. In the case study, a series of statistics, containing 50 lines of travelling data and 11 years of economic data, was collected from the historical railway service record and local economy yearbook, in an area with 11 cities connected by conventional normal-speed and upgraded high-speed railway networks in the east of China. The index sheets measuring the three levels of accessibility indicated the changes in the travel benefit ratio throughout the test period following the popularisation of the high-speed railway service.
To validate the practicability of the new accessibility system, four empirical analyses, including the Optimal Intercity Traffic Service Speed analysis, Population Accessibility analysis, Dynamic Population Accessibility analysis and Industry Accessibility analysis were implemented. The first case, Optimal Intercity Traffic Service Speed analysis, discussed the travellers’ benefit level under different intercity railway service speeds. A series of accessibility values were estimated according to the service speed from conventional train service to the faster Maglev. The results indicated how the average traveller benefited from the faster service speed, stable journey cost and economic development. The second case introduced the local demographic data into the panel data regression model to illustrate the population migration impacted by the high-speed railway service. In the result, Daily Accessibility Coefficient (DACC) showed a negative impact on the registered population difference (RPD) with a coefficient of -1.281, indicating that high-speed rail services help to balance population distribution between departure and destination cities. In contrast, conventional rail services, represented by the Weekly Accessibility Coefficient (WACC), had a positive effect on RPD, with a coefficient of 0.3839, suggesting that conventional rail services tend to increase population disparities, proving that the high-speed railway service is more effective in reducing population aggregation than the conventional railway service. The high-speed railway service could help to rebalance the local uneven population distribution and promote the progress of urbanisation. The third case, Dynamic Population-Accessibility Effectiveness analysis, extended the second case to discuss the impact cycle and period of a newly operated service. The result showed an average of 4 to 5 years’ fluctuation in population migration and a hypothesis of urbanisation progress based on accessibility testing results was proposed. The last case analysed the relationship between the development of three sectors of the economy and intercity railway line construction. The tertiary and secondary sectors exhibited greater sensitivity to changes in traffic conditions, indicating that the more advanced industries in the economy have a higher demand for speed in intercity commuting. Even inside each group, the high-speed railway service presented a higher influence and stronger relationship on the industry development than the normal-speed railway service.
This study makes several key contributions to the field of transportation economics and regional development. By introducing a new accessibility measurement framework, it offers a practical tool for assessing the economic benefits of high-speed railway systems. The empirical analysis of the East China HSR network demonstrates how enhanced accessibility can improve economic integration, population mobility, and industrial growth, particularly in developing cities. The study also highlights the limitations of current HSR systems in terms of cost-effectiveness for daily commuters. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners, suggesting that while HSR drives regional development, careful planning is required to maximise its economic potential and ensure long-term sustainability.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):