Quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on London Underground's infrastructure

Greenham, Sarah Victoria (2023). Quantifying the impact of heat and climate change on London Underground's infrastructure. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

Preview

Greenham2023PhD.pdf
Text - Accepted Version
Available under License All rights reserved.
Download (9MB) | Preview

Abstract

Transport for London (TfL) own and operate the world’s oldest metro network, the London Underground (LU). As the climate is changing, TfL is faced with operational challenges during periods of extreme weather, particularly regarding heat. TfL has short- and medium-term extreme weather plans in place, but it is uncertain whether these will be sufficient to withstand future climate change on the LU network in the long-term, and the potential degree of preparedness required. The challenges TfL face are further complicated by the complexity of LU’s infrastructure and operational legacy, resulting in three different environments (surface, sub-surface tunnels, and deep tube tunnels) with major disparities in station platform temperatures across the network.

The research presented in this thesis quantifies the impact of heat and climate change across the LU network. By critically reviewing current techniques, this study consolidates and develops several methodological approaches through the analysis. Firstly, it addresses the differing thermal environments across the three parts of the LU network. Then, it develops spatially led fault exposure rates for point-related assets, which have known vulnerabilities to temperature. Finally, the fault exposure rates are utilised to help estimate the change in point-related failures according to different climate change projection scenarios for London. A systematic, data-driven approach synthesising weather and climate information with asset faults provides an unbiased view of asset risk to temperature, in a sector that is usually highly dependent on the tacit knowledge of those who operate the network.

The results of this study suggest ways TfL could increase its capacity to deliver a more climate-resilient LU network for the future and provide strategic direction on climate change adaptation, primarily via data and stakeholder engagement. Although the data-driven approach utilised was valuable in identifying potential failure thresholds in the context of future climate change, its limitations highlighted the importance of a collaborative approach to climate resilience and adaptation for the LU network. Moreover, the approach and subsequent findings of this study demonstrated the wider applicability of its methods, with the potential scope to extend analysis to further LU assets and other railway and metro operators.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):