Real-time passenger flow oriented metro operation without timetables

He, Li (2023). Real-time passenger flow oriented metro operation without timetables. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

With the increased population in large cities, the demand for urban passenger transport increases every year. Because of their high speed, high capacity and low energy consumption characteristics, urban metro systems are considered to play an essential role in urban transportation. Generally, unpredictable fluctuating passenger flow usually exists in urban metro operations, so traditional predetermined metro timetables cannot always meet the variation of real-time passenger flow, and the service quality of the metro system can be impacted profoundly. Nowadays, many researchers make efforts to propose suitable metro operation strategies to satisfy the constantly changing passenger demands and ensure the system’s service quality.
In this situation, the author of this thesis deals with the dynamic metro scheduling problem and proposes a real-time metro operation method according to the variation of passenger flow. An innovative methodology has been proposed to model and solve the dynamic passenger flow oriented metro scheduling and real-time optimisation problem, and derived to propose passenger flow-based real-time operation strategies based on real-life operation without predetermined timetables.
First, a formal mathematical model, the Passenger Flow-Oriented Scheduling Model (POSM) has been proposed, based on nonlinear integer programming to minimise the service quality index (SQI) and also optimise the scheduling strategy with real-time passenger flow variation. An innovative algorithm GA_POSM, based on a genetic algorithm and integrated macroscopic metro and passenger flow simulator, has been designed to solve the scheduling and real-time optimisation problems formulated by POSM.
Then, the performance of GA_POSM has been evaluated based on the system data of Beijing Metro Line 19 with typical passenger flow distribution scenarios and Poisson distribution scenarios. The results show that, compared with traditional periodic timetables, the SQI can be significantly reduced by the scheduling method based on POSM; with real-time passenger flow variation, POSM can also optimise generated scheduling method flexibly.
Based on a field study in the London Underground Bakerloo Line Operation Department, the author also extended the proposed mathematical model to deal with different objectives in real-life operation, and integrated GA_POSM with a decision tree algorithm to improve its calculation speed for real-time application. Based on these extensions, a real-time passenger flow-oriented metro operation method without timetables, RPOM, has been proposed, and the system architecture and infrastructure requirements have been introduced. Compared to traditional timetable-based metro operation, the method can significantly improve the metro operation flexibility and the service quality according to further case studies.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):