The use of evidence in local net zero policy: a case study of the West Midlands, UK

Duncan, Laurie ORCID: 0009-0005-2103-6007 (2025). The use of evidence in local net zero policy: a case study of the West Midlands, UK. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

Net zero policy has largely been developed by national governments. Many countries have set a target date for achieving full decarbonisation of their economies. However, research has increasingly found that net zero policy is most effectively developed and delivered at subnational scales. The cross-cutting nature of net zero as a policy problem relies on contextualised, place-based approaches to achieve good policy outcomes.
In this research I examine the development of local net zero policy through the lens of evidence-based policy. Critical scholarship on evidence use in policymaking suggests that the political, contested nature of policy contexts affects what counts as evidence, the ways in which evidence is used, and the justifications for using evidence. Previous research suggests that policymaking at the local level tends to have less capacity to use evidence than at the national level, and that a multilevel governance perspective is helpful to understanding the different ways in which evidence is used locally.
This study investigates the role of evidence in net zero policymaking processes in the West Midlands, UK. A single embedded case study design is used to examine the West Midlands Combined Authority’s Five Year Plan, developed in 2020-2021 to set out high-level actions for achieving the region’s net zero emissions target of 2041. The sub-case examines the development of a quantitative carbon model, which was used as a key source of evidence to develop the Five Year Plan. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with local policymakers, politicians, and consultants involved in the development of the policy, in order to gain a deep understanding of the process, alongside documentary analysis of the policy documents.
I find that local policymakers prioritised simplified, quantitative evidence. Limited policymaker capacity led to a reliance on external consultants to produce and utilise quantitative modelling evidence. As such, the policy failed to address uncertainty and ambiguity of net zero in ways that would increase salience, credibility and legitimacy, and prevented the policy from being truly place-based. I discuss how the ‘evidence-based’ label applied to policies which require multiple disciplinary perspectives can restrict the influence of evidence when analytical policy capacity is not sufficiently embedded within wider policy teams. I conclude that the current use of evidence in local net zero policymaking is not sufficiently contextualised to foster a place-based approach to net zero.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):