The impact of climate change on rice production in Thailand

Chomtoranin, Jainta (2019). The impact of climate change on rice production in Thailand. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

In this study, we estimate climate change impacts on rice production in Thailand during 2001-2014, covering two main rice growing seasons: rain-fed and irrigated rice growing seasons. We first modify the rice detection algorithm to detect three major rice ecosystems of the country at 500-meter resolution across the country.We map rice field locations to illustrate the mixture of different rice ecosystems. The findings of the regression analysis confirm that the rain-fed rice yield relies solely on the amount of precipitation, whereas irrigation water is crucial for irrigated rice production. Both minimum and maximum temperatures have less effect on the two rice seasons. Interestingly, the rice pledging scheme, can induce rice farmers to grow irrigated rice for double or multiple cycles. Furthermore, expansion of rice fields can help to increase the yield of both rice varieties, while fertiliser application benefits only rain-fed rice. Moreover, the study results indicate that weather fluctuation has more adverse effects on rain-fed rice than on the dry season crop. The results of applying six climate models to forecast the impact of climate change on rice fields indicate a rising trend of precipitation and irrigation water over the 21st century for the two crop cycles. Furthermore, the projected minimum temperature tends to decrease continuously for the two rice seasons in the 21st century. On the other hand, the projected maximum temperature is likely to increase over the same period. Rain-fed rice yield tends to decrease whereas irrigated rice yield is likely to increase in the 21st century.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):