Crash risk models for motorcycle-dominated traffic environment of urban roads in developing countries

Phan, Vu Le (2016). Crash risk models for motorcycle-dominated traffic environment of urban roads in developing countries. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

This research developed a new methodology and new models for assessing the potential of motorcycle crashes and selecting countermeasures to improve motorcyclist safety in a motorcycle-dominated traffic environment of urban roads. The crash risk models were developed based on discrete choice models and traffic conflict techniques. The innovative features of this research are that the non-lane-based movements of motorcycles were captured to evaluate their contributions to crash risk and a new
concept - that of the Conflict Modification Factor (CoMF) - was proposed to use as a surrogate measure to assess the relative contribution of risk factors to crashes. In addition, a methodology was also developed to enhance the existing International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) star rating system for motorcyclists. The developed models were fitted and validated using data collected from urban roads in the city of Danang in Vietnam. The operating speed, speed difference, traffic density, front distance, longitudinal gap, lateral clearance and road surface condition were found to significantly contribute to motorcycle crash risk and several countermeasures have been consequently identified to improve motorcyclist safety including: installing changeable speed limit signs, installing changeable gap warning signs, installing changeable road surface condition warning signs and providing segregated motorcycle lanes.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):