Impact analysis of spatial-temporal resolution on high penetration of renewable energy

Ma, Guolong ORCID: 0000-0002-3102-705X (2024). Impact analysis of spatial-temporal resolution on high penetration of renewable energy. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

The power generation of variable renewable energy (VRE) is largely affected by natural environmental factors, such as wind speed and solar irradiance, which can cause great variability, fluctuation, and intermittency, and these characteristics will become more severe as renewable energy penetration increases. These power variations will bring operational challenges to the instantaneous balance, and will also increase in intraday trading frequency, and increase re-scheduling operation costs in the electricity market. Therefore, increasing penetration of VRE will cause fundamental and structural changes to traditional power system operation regimes. This doctoral study focuses on the investigation of increasing spatial-temporal resolution in high-penetration renewable energy systems and evaluates their impact on electricity market operations, hence providing scientific insights into the electricity market reform.
This thesis carries out a literature review and it is found: there is a lack of theoretical research on the impact of power fluctuation characteristics on the day-ahead power curve and the real-time power curve; there is a lack of quantitative scientific evaluation of the entire electricity market at different temporal granularity; Current research on increasing spatial granularity generally focuses on the regional and node electricity prices, but rarely mentions the increase of spatial network granularity, and lacks a scientific model for building spatial grid networks.
In terms of power fluctuation, this thesis proposes metrics including power incremental statistics, coefficient of variation, and peak power duration to characterize the power variability characteristics. Based on these metrics, the mathematical relationship between these variations and net-load power curves, and real-time power imbalance curves are analysed. It is found that power variability will directly affect net-load power curves and the power gradient will affect the real-time power imbalance. For example, the solar power variability characteristics will cause the net-load power curve to look like a duck curve, while real-time power imbalance to look like a butterfly curve.
In terms of increasing temporal resolution reform in electricity markets, this thesis proposes an evaluation method for the electricity market at different time granularity, including ex-ante real-time power deviation prediction; real-time power scheduling operation and clearing; and ex-post power deviation settlement. Based on this evaluation model proposed, this thesis provides strong evidence that the higher the time granularity, the power step changes and the real-time power deviation quantities are smaller, and vice versa. Increasing the time granularity from 30 to 5 minutes will reduce the balancing cost by nearly half and reduce the power step amplitude standard deviation by nearly 80%.
In regarding the increasing spatial resolution for electricity market reform, including the space granularity of renewable generation units and the space granularity of the subnetworks, the thesis proposes the stochastic energy network theory to characterize the supply-demand adaptation balance index (SDABI) and further proposes a subnetwork networking method to evaluate the impact of increasing space granularity on reducing power system operation costs, power flow losses, and power transmission network congestion.
In summary, this doctoral thesis for the first time provides scientific evidence to support the worldwide power market reform of the increasing spatial-temporal resolution with massive renewable energy integration systems.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):