Risk assessment of extremist offenders and those considered vulnerable to engagement.

Powis, Catharine Rebecca (2022). Risk assessment of extremist offenders and those considered vulnerable to engagement. University of Birmingham. Foren.Psy.D.

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Abstract

The aim of the present thesis was to explore the use of Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) risk assessment tools designed for use with extremist offenders or those within the pre-crime space who are considered vulnerable to engagement. SPJ tools have been recommended for use with these populations (Monahan, 2012; Van Der Heide, 2019), however it is acknowledged that there are important differences between extremist offending and general violence risk (Copeland & Marsden, 2020; Pressman, 2009). In response to the challenges to assessing risk in extremist offenders, a number of tools have been developed over recent years specifically for use with this population and within the pre-crime space. Although such SPJ risk assessments are relatively new, given their widespread use globally and the rapidly expanding terrorism research, it is important to bring together the relevant literature on their development and validation attempts to date. Particular attention is paid to the UK perspective on terrorism and the use of the Extremist Risk Guidance (ERG22+).

A systematic review of the literature was conducted which identified four current SPJ tools: The ERG22+, Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), the Violent Extremist Risk Assessment (VERA) and the Multi-Level Guidelines (MLG). Identified validation studies were subject to a quality review and the findings are discussed in relation to future research needs in the area.

Contributing to the current terrorism literature, this thesis presents an exploratory analysis using Multi-Dimensional Scaling Analysis (MDS) of individual and attack characteristics identified in mass casualty terror events, focusing specifically on the key perpetrators of lone actor attacks. The results of which are discussed in relation to the current research and offender typologies.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Foren.Psy.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Foren.Psy.D.

Supervisor(s):