Essays on public pension systems, with special reference to China

Abstract

This thesis studies the provision of public pension system through three different approaches. Part one focuses on demographic change and pension system reforms in China. It reviews the historical reforms and the problems and suggestions associated with the current system. More importantly, by applying a calibrated overlapping generations general equilibrium simulation model, it investigates the impact of the demographic changes and the choice of pension system to the individual choices and macroeconomic variables in the future. As with all social insurance programs, the provision a public pension system involves a trade-off between protection and distortion. The second part is a theoretical study about the optimal level of public pension system. It derives the optimal pension benefit level by considering the welfare loss imposed by the saving and labour supply distortion. The third part of the thesis, is an empirical study investigating the reasons for different choices in pension systems. There are three types of public pension systems popular throughout the world: Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG), Funded and Mixed. The latter two have grown up largely since 1980s, after Chile successfully built its Funded system. By applying logistic regression tests, we examine the likely social and economic variables which have been affecting the choices.