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Vulnerability of water resources to climate change and human impact: scenario analysis of the Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran

Javadinejad, Safieh (2016)
Ph.D. thesis, University of Birmingham.

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Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of reducing precipitations and rising temperatures in the arid and semi-arid of the Middle-East region (such as Iran) aggravate this condition during the last few decades. A proper water planning needs productive Integrated Water Resource Management models that can respond these complicated troubles.
The aim of this study was to develop a structure for applicable and efficient risk control of water supplies through drought. This management structure combines hydrological, socio-economic and water organization models. The methodology has three factors: 1) the statistical possessions of drought characterisation and drought trend in terms of space-time were examined and thresholds of drought warning are evaluated to assist as drivers for control programmes. 2) A water-planning model was applied to combine water accessibility and demand and examine the reliability of the water system to deliver the water to demand sites during the normal and drought episodes. 3) The model was used to estimates the future impacts of climate alteration, through driving them with simulations from an ensemble of statically downscaled CMIP5 model for the severest scenario in the 21st century. Moreover, some potential management plans that decrease the future hazard of water shortage were evaluated. The methods were tested in a case study in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Iran. The results indicated the important roles of both meteorological and anthropogenic elements on occurrence of drought and water shortages for past and future time.

Type of Work:Ph.D. thesis.
Supervisor(s):Hannah, David M. and Widmann, Martin
School/Faculty:Colleges (2008 onwards) > College of Life & Environmental Sciences
Department:School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
Additional Information:

Subjects:GE Environmental Sciences
HD Industries. Land use. Labor
QE Geology
TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Institution:University of Birmingham
ID Code:7103
This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.
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