Anyala, Michael (2011)
Ph.D. thesis, University of Birmingham.
Restricted to Repository staff only until 31 December 2016.
The performance of roads is known to progressively reduce as a result of separate and interactive effects of climate and traffic. Existing decision support tools such as HDM-4, which are widely used to investigate long-term road maintenance strategies, utilise past climate data instead of future climate predictions. Uncertainties inherent in future climate predictions however imply that application of such tools could lead to outputs that are not robust in light of climate change.
The objectives of the study were threefold: firstly, to develop a rut depth prediction model that considered potential effects of future climate; secondly, to formulate a framework for quantification of uncertainties; and finally, to demonstrate the application of the tools developed using a case study.
The model was developed using data provided by the UK Highways Agency and UK Climate Impacts Programme. The methodology used was based on Bayesian regression. The developed model was found to perform better than the current asphalt surfacing rut depth model implemented in HDM-4 when future climate data was used.
It was concluded that probabilistic outputs from the tools developed including deterioration rates, pavement condition and discounted maintenance costs for each maintenance strategy, and future climate and socio-economic scenarios provide a useful decision making framework for considering alternative strategies for road maintenance on the basis of the level of climate change risks that can be tolerated.
|Type of Work:||Ph.D. thesis.|
|Supervisor(s):||Baker, Christopher and Odoki, Jennaro B|
|School/Faculty:||Colleges (2008 onwards) > College of Engineering & Physical Sciences|
|Department:||School of Civil Engineering|
Papers based on this research are published as:
M. Anyala, J. B. Odoki, C. J. Baker
Hierarchical asphalt pavement deterioration model for climate impact studies
International Journal of Pavement Engineering
Anyala, Michael and Odoki, Jennaro and Baker, Christopher
Assessment of the impact of climate change on road maintenance.
In: 2nd International Conference on Advances in Engineering and Technology (AET2011), 31 Jan – 2 Feb 2011, Entebbe, Uganda.
|Keywords:||Road maintenance, climate change, asphalt surface rutting, Bayesian regression, pavement rutting prediction model, climate impact assessment, uncertainty framework
|Subjects:||TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements|
|Institution:||University of Birmingham|
|Library Catalogue:||Check for printed version of this thesis|
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