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Download StatisticsManning, Colin (2019). Multivariate statistical modelling of the meteorological extremes that drive soil moisture drought. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.
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Manning2019PhD.pdf
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Abstract
A compound event is an extreme impact that arises from the joint occurrence of the underlying contributing events. In this thesis, soil moisture drought is analysed as a compound event of meteorological drought and extremely high temperatures. A conceptual framework is developed to (1) disentangle contributions of the meteorological hazards to soil moisture drought, (2) quantify the probability of long-duration meteorological drought events that coincide with extreme temperatures, and (3) assess the representation of such events in climate models. The conceptual framework is implemented using copula-based statistical models.
Using the models, it is found that: (1) precipitation is the main driver of soil moisture drought. In wet climates, PET is additionally required to explain the onset, severity and persistence of soil moisture drought over different time scales. At dry sites, where evapotranspiration (ET) is moisture limited in summer, PET does not improve the estimation of soil moisture. Thus, drought indices that incorporate PET should be interpreted carefully and within the context of climate in which they are applied. (2) the probability of long-duration dry and hot (DH) events has increased throughout Europe over the period (1950-2013), with largest increases found in Southeast Europe. We also highlight the need to account for the dependence between these hazards to avoid an underestimation in the probability of DH events. (3) it is found that the probability of long-duration DH events is largely underestimated throughout Europe in a set of CMIP5 climate models, we highlight that more research is needed to understand the physical sources of this underestimation.
The frameworks here have been developed to study concurrences of meteorological drought and extremely high temperatures in Europe, though the conceptual frameworks may be readily applied in other locations and to different types of extreme events such as heat waves.
| Type of Work: | Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.) | |||||||||
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| Award Type: | Doctorates > Ph.D. | |||||||||
| Supervisor(s): |
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| Licence: | All rights reserved | |||||||||
| College/Faculty: | Colleges (2008 onwards) > College of Life & Environmental Sciences | |||||||||
| School or Department: | School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences | |||||||||
| Funders: | Other | |||||||||
| Other Funders: | Volkswagen Foundation | |||||||||
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography | |||||||||
| URI: | http://etheses.bham.ac.uk/id/eprint/9703 |
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