Analysis of extreme precipitation events over the Eastern Red Sea Coast for recent and future climate conditions

Alharbi, Mohammad Mosaed Eid Alahmadi (2018). Analysis of extreme precipitation events over the Eastern Red Sea Coast for recent and future climate conditions. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

The investigation of extreme precipitation events over the western coast of Saudi Arabia is necessary to estimate their potential impact on both socioeconomic activities and the regional environment. The current study aims at understanding the atmospheric dynamics leading to extreme precipitation, to improve weather forecasting in the target region and the development of long-term adaptation policies.

Preliminary results reveal that extreme precipitation events in this region occur during the wet season (Nov–Jan). The synoptic mechanisms of these events are a function of the complex interaction between tropical, subtropical and middle-latitude dynamics. The synoptic dynamic processes were identified by a subjective study of the highest 30 extreme events. In addition, the weather circulation patterns (WCPs) of all extreme events were classified objectively by means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis based on the mean sea level pressure. WCPs were linked with synoptic dynamic processes and teleconnected with large-scale climate variability modes. Furthermore, WCPs, precipitation and data regarding other atmospheric variables from different regional climate models were used to investigate future changes in extreme precipitation events under climate change.

The most important weather circulation patterns, which are associated with extreme precipitation events, were identified. The possibility of extreme precipitation events increases with great uncertainty.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):