Pilgrim crowd dynamics

Aljohani, Abdulaziz Mousa (2015). Pilgrim crowd dynamics. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

Among the steady progression of disasters worldwide lie the numerous instances of fatality where crowds gather. The scale of these is particularly high at the Hajj in Makkah, where there are exceptionally high numbers of pedestrians in a number of confined areas and, depending on the time of year, all in searing heat.

In order to reduce the likelihood of repetition in the future, the present thesis involved firstly determining the characteristics of the pedestrians attending the Hajj, and then collecting speed, flow and density data by observing them walking along one of the busiest roads between the Holy Mosque and the other holy sites, Ajyad Street. These were analyzed against various models from the literature including those of Greenshield, Weidmann and Greenberg, and it was found that none of these fitted convincingly, mostly because pilgrims do not walk at the maximum speeds that the crowd density allows. This thesis proposes the use instead of a maximum possible speed model based on a linear relationship between speed and density i.e.
\(u\) ≤ 1.75 (1 - \(k\) /5.47) where \(u\) is speed (m/s) and \(k\) is density (people/m\(^2\)). It then goes on demonstrate with a simulation model that an increase of 50% in traffic with the current layout would result in severe overcrowding. This however could be avoided relatively easily by a particular combination of changing the directions of flow and the geometry of the road.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

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