Climate influences on infectious diseases in Nigeria, West Africa

Abdussalam, Auwal Farouk (2014). Climate influences on infectious diseases in Nigeria, West Africa. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

Meningitis and cholera have remained major health burden in Nigeria, especially in the heavily populated northwest region – which is identified as one of the “hotspots” of climate change. The strong sensitivity that both diseases exhibit to climate is raising concern that future anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate the occurrence of the diseases. This thesis aimed at modelling the influences of climate on the incidence of the selected diseases, and assessing their future risk in northwest Nigeria. The aim is achieved by first, investigating and understanding the spatial and time characteristics of both meteorological and diseases conditions in the region. This was followed by developing and validating suites of empirical statistical models capable of explaining and predicting both diseases. Models that are specifically designed for climate change studies were applied to estimate the future impact of climate change, by forcing them with simulations from an ensemble of statistically downscaled Atmosphere-ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs), for three different scenarios in the early and late 21st century. Results from developed models indicate the significant roles of both meteorological and socioeconomic factors on incidence of diseases. Evaluation of models developed with 1-month lagged explanatory variables suggest the potential to predict both diseases cases up to a month to aid decision making. Projection results suggest that future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase diseases cases in all scenarios and time slices. It is noteworthy that the projections result represents only the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, assuming that the present prevention strategies remain similar in the future.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):