Mathematical models for national economic planning in underdeveloped countries: an empirical study for the Iraqi economy

Al-Saadi, Sabri Zire (1971). Mathematical models for national economic planning in underdeveloped countries: an empirical study for the Iraqi economy. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

This study is concerned with the use of mathematical models for development planning. It proposes a procedure for building quantitative national economic planning models with special attention given to the investment decisions. The unifying thread running through the various alternatives considered here is the proposition that economic development implies interconnected processes of economic and social change. The ultimate aim of development planning is to raise the standard of living and to increase employment opportunities in the shortest possible time. Rapid and sustained growth can only be ensured through a continuous stream of high-rate investments over a long period of time. In underdeveloped countries, where the level of capital accumulation is relatively low and where prices in an imperfect market situation are no adequate guide for rational investment decisions, this necessitates varying degrees of state intervention in the economic activities to ensure both a rapid rate of growth and efficient allocation of resources.

The study proposes a multi-sectoral model with special application to the Iraqi economy for determining optimal structures of output, investment and other economic variables which maximise a social welfare function subject to the structural and other relations restricting the possibilities of economic development. In introducing a distinction between competitive and complementary imports, the same exercises also serve to explore the scope for import substitutions. The study sheds light on the problem of investment criteria and illustrates the use of integer-programming-type models for taking investment decisions on a project level in relation to planning on a macro- and sectoral level.

As the Iraqi economy has special features distinct from those generally prevailing in underdeveloped countries, particularly with regard to its endowment with crude oil resources, the application of the model shows how in practice the theoretical concepts can be utilised. By using parametric programming the multi-sectoral model explores the welfare implications of alternative policies in the case of Iraq. In view of the economic structure and potentialities, the pattern of recent growth, planning experience and the available statistical data, a model for development planning is here elaborated for the Iraqi economy. The results and conclusions offer evidence that unless the present economic policies are changed, the development of the Iraqi economy will be restricted.

In this respect It is hoped that this study will serve time purpose set out, i.e. to introduce the subject of mathematical models to the field of national economic planning in Iraq and advocate in a practical manner the approaches by which economic problems can be treated.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):