Europeanisation and the Ukraine crisis: the impact of the EU on Hungarian and Polish foreign policies, 2014–2024

Naghiyev, Orkhan (2026). Europeanisation and the Ukraine crisis: the impact of the EU on Hungarian and Polish foreign policies, 2014–2024. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

The thesis considers the foreign policies of Hungary and Poland towards Russia and Ukraine to examine their Europeanisation during the Ukraine crisis between 2014 and 2024. It contributes to the Europeanisation literature by investigating whether and to what extent the foreign policies of Hungary and Poland were Europeanised during this period. By considering the European Union’s Eastern policy as the least likely case of Europeanisation and selecting the divergent foreign policies of Hungary and Poland based on maximum variation case selection strategy, the thesis develops a model of the Europeanisation of foreign policy. It utilises the rationalist logic and argues that policy change at the national level can happen without member states’ strict adherence to traditional norms and principles in the EU foreign policy. This research identifies a government’s definition of its critical policy preferences as the key intervening variable, which helps determine a member state’s EU-level strategy (cooperative or conditional dissent), the mechanisms of policy change (strategic learning, strategic action, issue linkage and hostage-taking) and the Europeanisation outcomes (transformation, adaptation, fragmentation, resistance and no Europeanisation). The empirical analysis triangulates a large amount of primary and secondary data. It demonstrates that the Polish governments’ cooperative strategies and compatible national preferences with the EU led to the adaptation outcome of Europeanisation. For its part, while the Hungarian government’s cooperative strategy yielded fragmentation, its conditional dissent strategy and growing differences with the EU produced the resistance outcome of Europeanisation. Overall, the thesis showcases that national foreign policy change due to the EU’s influence can happen both when there is a significant overlap between the national and EU levels (Poland), and when there is strong opposition to EU-level policy initiatives (Hungary), strengthening the explanatory value of Europeanisation.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):