The role of interpersonal trust in ‘scaling up’ negotiations from Track II to Track I diplomacy in conflict situations: a case study of the Oslo Backchannel, December 1992-September 1993

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Wilcox, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3792-1001 (2024). The role of interpersonal trust in ‘scaling up’ negotiations from Track II to Track I diplomacy in conflict situations: a case study of the Oslo Backchannel, December 1992-September 1993. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

Individuals engaging in face-to-face interactions may develop interpersonal trust (IPT) based on a judgement of the other’s trustworthiness. But can an individual’s perceptions of another’s trustworthiness be transferred to others? If so, how? Existing international relations (IR) trust research has yet to address this question.

This creates a puzzle that speaks directly to the transfer issue in track diplomacy, between official diplomatic processes (Track I), and unofficial initiatives (Track II). This thesis seeks to address this puzzle testing three potential mechanisms to examine which one best explains how perceptions of trustworthiness are transferred between individuals operating at both Track I and Track II levels (‘trustworthiness transfer’). These mechanisms are tested against a single case study, the 1992-1993 Oslo Channel between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

The main conclusion of the thesis is that trustworthiness transfer takes place through the interplay of all three mechanisms, and also explains how the Oslo Channel ‘scaled up’ from a Track II initiative to a Track I process. This thesis supports the centrality of IPT and personal connections as a mechanism of transfer between Track II and Track I, and the possibility of ‘scaling up’ from one level to the next. The thesis contributes to the IR debate on IPT, proposing the concept of ‘trustworthiness transfer’ as a potential mechanism to explain how decision-makers develop perceptions of trustworthiness in scenarios where they do not directly engage in face-to-face interactions with individuals from the other side.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):