Essays on the economics of wildfires

Meier, Sarah ORCID: 0000-0001-6108-0735 (2023). Essays on the economics of wildfires. University of Birmingham. Ph.D.

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Abstract

This doctoral thesis presents three empirical essays on the economics of wildfires. The first essay models and compares the risk of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe at the country level. We link geospatial data on burn perimeters, meteorological conditions, population density, and land cover from 2006 to 2019. Employing extreme value analysis the study identifies the highest risk of extreme wildfires for Portugal, followed by Greece, Spain, and Italy. We provide 10--, 20--, and 50--year return levels of burned area and associated economic losses. The second essay examines the regional economic impact of wildfires on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for 233 regions in Southern Europe from 2011 to 2018. Through panel fixed effects instrumental variable estimation, the study finds a contemporaneous decrease in the annual GDP growth rate for regions affected by wildfires. The effect on employment growth is heterogeneous across sectors with a negative effect on retail and tourism offset by a positive effect on insurance and real estate activities. The third essay studies the Great Fire of 1910 in the Northwestern United States, investigating the effects of wildfire-sourced smoke pollution on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes of children under the age of five. Utilising historical burn perimeters, smoke emission and dispersion modelling, as well as mortality and census data spanning from 1900 to 1940, the study finds a negative effect of smoke exposure on excess mortality in the week of the fire. Furthermore, being exposed in early childhood may lead to a decrease in some later-life socioeconomic status outcomes 20 years after the event. Collectively, these essays contribute to our understanding of wildfire risk, economic consequences, and health implications, providing valuable insights for wildfire management and policy-making efforts.

Type of Work:

Thesis (Doctorates > Ph.D.)

Award Type:

Doctorates > Ph.D.

Supervisor(s):